I will never admit to be an expert on anything. I’ve never won thousands on DFS or have been published or have won awards. All I try to do is read as much as I can and watch as much as I can relating to football. Looking at more than stats has gotten me above the cash line in most of my DFS contests this year. There are just some things you can set your watch to that have either simple or no numbers backing them up. My favorite stat to trash is the QB fourth quarter comeback stat. Yes it is true good QBs usually can lead their team to victories when down late in the game when lesser QBs wouldn’t BUT, that same QB probably had something to do with the team being in the hole in the first place. It’s much like a baseball pitcher walking the bases loaded and then getting a strikeout and a double play ball to end the inning. Anyway, here are a few things to keep in mind when creating your million dollar roster for daily fantasy this week.
- Andy Reid off a bye week- It’s no secret but for those that don’t know, Andy Reid is 16-2 coming off a bye week in his coaching career. He normally has his team ready to go in these situations. His players did get the entire week off last week which may become a factor. Questionable decision by Reid to interrupt the team’s routine with so much at stake. This isn’t atypical for coaches to do during the regular season so Reid might be staying consistent in that respect.
- Rookie Starters in DAL- Dallas enters the playoffs as the NFC’s number one seed and has to face a red hot Green Bay Packers team. Many people will be looking at GBs bad defensive numbers and target the Dallas passing game and of course Elliot. It is worth considering that rookie QBs and even RBs can be hard to trust, even at home, in their first playoff games. Dallas as a whole is very inexperienced in these big situations and needed a gift from the officials to win in the playoffs 2 years ago with an arguably more talented team vs a much lesser opponent. Moral of the story is you can roster your Elliot and your DAL passing game but you are putting your faith in extremely unproven commodities against the hottest team in football.
- Blount week in Foxboro- The outcome of the game between HOU and NE isn’t in question this week. Who to target for the Pats is always the hardest thing to determine and this week is no different. After carefully thinking about how this game is going to play out, you can feel good about some Blount exposure this week. Houston comes in with the top ranked defense in the NFL. Houston is a good defense for sure but they are far from a dominant defense. They will give up plenty of points to NE this week. The Pats have limited big play ability and will have plenty of opportunities from in close as they did during the regular season. Expect plenty of goal line touches and clock killing touches from the Patriots heavy hitting back Legarrette Blount. I’m going to be all over him this week.
- The Dan Quinn Factor- I was going to regurgitate the whole rookie factor in playoffs thing with Dan Quinn being the only first time playoff coach left in the playoffs but let’s look at it differently. Dan Quinn is the former defensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks. His defense spent it’s time defending Russell Wilson in practice every day for the entire two years he and Russell were there together. In his one previous matchup, the Falcons lost in Seattle by 2 points and scored 21 points in the third quarter. He knows how Pete Carroll would want to attack him. This will make for an interesting scheme game within the football game. Seattle might have more pure talent than the Falcons and Carroll is a professional football coach (he has a clue) so Quinn has his work cut out for him. You can target Falcons passing game with confidence because of the falcons strong knowledge of how Seattle wants to operate. Don’t expect big leads either way so there will be incentive for Ryan to throw. (Insert obligatory Matt Ryan at home or Matt Ryan in playoffs take here).